One in four properties may be at risk of flooding by 2050 – report

Round eight million properties in England – or one in 4 – may very well be susceptible to flooding by 2050 because the hazard will increase as a result of local weather change, the Atmosphere Company (EA) has mentioned.

In its first evaluation of how a warming world may have an effect on flooding, the EA warned of accelerating threats from heavier rainfall and rising sea ranges.

The variety of at-risk properties may very well be even larger if extra homes are constructed on floodplains, however may very well be decrease if flood defences are improved.

At the moment, 6.3 million properties are thought of in danger from flooding, new figures present, which is larger than beforehand thought.

“The frequency and severity of the type of flood occasions that we have been experiencing are more likely to change into an increasing number of difficult,” Julie Foley, director of flood threat technique on the Atmosphere Company, mentioned.

The EA considers flooding from three principal sources: rivers, the ocean and floor water – the place heavy rainfall overwhelms drainage techniques.

It defines properties as being “in danger” when the yearly likelihood of flooding is bigger than one-in-1,000.

At the moment, the EA says that 4.6 million properties and companies are susceptible to floor flooding, with London essentially the most affected area.

This can be a 43% rise on its earlier estimate, however that is virtually solely as a result of improved datasets and pc modelling strategies, quite than a real-world enhance in flood threat.

Nonetheless, the EA says that local weather change may elevate the variety of properties susceptible to floor flooding to round 6.1 million by the center of the century.

It’s well-documented {that a} warming world generally increases the intensity of heavy rainfall.

Between October 2023 and March 2024, for instance, the quantity of rainfall on the stormiest days within the UK increased by an estimated 20% on average due to climate change.

The report additionally highlights a rising threat of flooding from rivers and the ocean – from 2.4 million properties at this time to round 3.1 million by mid-century.

The East Midlands, Yorkshire and The Humber, and south-east England are notably in danger.

One of these flooding – from rivers bursting their banks or storm surges bringing seawater onto shore – could be notably damaging because it usually brings deeper floodwaters.

Wetter winters enhance the possibilities of river flooding, whereas sea-level rise makes coastal flooding extra doubtless.

World sea ranges are rising primarily as a result of a mix of melting glaciers and ice sheets, and the truth that hotter water takes up more room. They’re anticipated to proceed rising for hundreds of years to come back.

Common sea ranges across the UK have already risen by practically 20cm since 1900, with most of that occurring since 1990.

This additionally has knock-on results for coastal erosion – the displacement of land alongside coastlines because of the motion of waves.

The UK already has a few of the quickest eroding coastlines in Europe.

However local weather change may enhance the variety of properties susceptible to successfully being misplaced into the ocean to almost 20,000 by 2100, even when enough shoreline administration plans are put in place, the EA says.

That will be up from 3,500 between now and mid-century.

This report solely considers how local weather change impacts future flood threat.

There are lots of different components, from constructing on floodplains to enhancements to flood defences, that would form the impacts of flooding sooner or later.

Partly because of the Thames Barrier flood defence, for instance, London is at the moment thought of much less susceptible to flooding from rivers and the ocean than another areas.

However there have been repeated warnings that the UK is poorly ready for the impacts of a altering local weather.

Earlier this yr, a cross-party committee of MPs warned that the federal government had not maintained enough of its existing flood defences or built enough new ones. A scarcity of funding has been a key subject.

In response to at this time’s report, Floods Minister Emma Hardy acknowledged that “too many communities are uncovered to the hazards of flooding”.

“That’s the reason we have now dedicated £2.4 billion over the following two years to keep up, restore and construct flood defences to guard communities throughout the nation,” she mentioned.

Further reporting by Jonah Fisher and Miho Tanaka; map by Erwan Rivault