Insurgent forces declare to have taken management of the Syrian capital after storming via the nation in lower than two weeks.

Based on experiences, authoritarian ruler Bashar al Assad has fled Damascus on a aircraft headed to an unknown vacation spot, ending his 24-year rule.

Whereas Syrians have fun within the streets with chants for freedom, consideration may also flip to the insurgents and what occurs subsequent.

Who’re the rebels?

The preliminary assault on regime forces, which started within the northern metropolis of Aleppo final week, was carried out by quite a lot of Mr Assad’s opponents.

This included rebels underneath the banner of the Syrian Nationwide Military, backed by Turkey, however the offensive has principally been led by jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS).

As soon as often known as the Nusra Entrance, a former wing of al Qaeda, HTS is alleged to have round 30,000 troops and has lengthy been designated a terrorist group by the US and Russia.

It was shaped to oppose the Syrian authorities and was based by Abu Muhammed al Golani, reducing ties with al Qaeda in 2016 and making an effort to look average.

Learn extra: Newest as Assad ‘flees’ Syria

As rebels entered Aleppo, video confirmed him issuing orders by cellphone, forbidding fighters from coming into houses and reminding them to guard residents.

Aron Lund, a fellow at think-tank Century Worldwide, mentioned Mr Golani and HTS have clearly modified, whereas including they continue to be “fairly hardline”.

“It is PR, however the reality they’re partaking on this effort in any respect exhibits they’re now not as inflexible as they as soon as have been,” he mentioned.

“Outdated-school al Qaeda or the Islamic State would by no means have completed that.”

However the US’s Fee on Worldwide Spiritual Freedom mentioned in 2022 that regardless of the “rebrand”, HTS “restricts non secular freedom” and threatens the security of non secular minorities.

What plans have they got?

Mr Golani, himself designated a terrorist by the US in 2013, has tried to reassure Syrian minorities who worry jihadists.

In 2023, he allowed the primary Christian mass in years within the northwestern metropolis of Idlib, and on Wednesday insisted he would defend residents of a Christian city south of Aleppo.

The group’s political plans stay to be seen, with Robert Ford, former US ambassador to Syria, telling Sky Information he has not seen “detailed applications”.

“We do not know precisely what they will do,” he mentioned. “I’d say right here that after a 13-year extremely bloody and cruel civil battle, proper now it is a day for Syrians to have fun, and to hope for issues that can prove higher.

“There shall be loads of laborious work shortly ready for them.”

Why has this occurred now?

These anti-Assad victories are years within the making, greater than a decade on from the beginning of Syrian civil battle.

However the speedy insurgent progress has shocked the worldwide group.

Former head of the British Military’s chemical weapons unit, Hamish De Bretton-Gordon, mentioned the timing is “no coincidence”.

“With Hezbollah a lot diminished, the Iranian proxy within the area, and in addition different Iranian militias, it gave the rebels a chance,” he instructed Sky Information.

“With Russia taking so many forces away from Syria to bolster their particular navy operation in Ukraine, it left Assad uncovered and the rebels have actually taken benefit of it.”

What different nations have pursuits in Syria?

The assault had raised the prospect of one other entrance reopening within the Center East, at a time when US-backed Israel has been preventing Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, each Iran-allied teams.

Russia, which was Mr Assad’s fundamental worldwide backer, can also be preoccupied with its battle in Ukraine.

Earlier navy intervention by Russia and Iran – alongside assist from different teams – had allowed Mr Assad to stay in energy and retain 70% of Syria underneath his management.

Learn extra:
Center East energy dynamics will totally change
Quick-moving battle is exclusive geopolitical problem

The US has about 900 troops in northeast Syria to protect towards a resurgence by the Islamic State, which was defeated in Syria and Iraq by 2019, by a US-led coalition that included Kurdish fighters and UK air assist.

Turkey, which additionally opposes Kurdish enlargement, has forces in Syria alongside its reported affect with the broad alliance of opposition forces.