The speedy downfall of Syrian chief Bashar Assad has touched off a brand new spherical of delicate geopolitical maneuvering between Russia‘s Vladimir Putin and Turkey‘s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

With the mud nonetheless settling from the gorgeous occasions in Damascus, the result for now appears to be favoring Ankara, which backed the victorious rebels, whereas Moscow suffered a bruising blow to its worldwide clout.

“Within the recreation of Czars vs. Sultans, that is Sultans 1 and Czars 0,” stated Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Analysis Program on the Washington Institute. “Removed from being allies, Turkey and Russia are rivals. And on this case, Turkey has outsmarted Russia.”

The Assad regime’s demise opens one other chapter within the complicated relationship between Putin and Erdogan, with wide-ranging implications not only for Syria but additionally for Ukraine and the 2 leaders’ ties with Washington.

Russia and Turkey share financial and safety pursuits — together with an intense rivalry. The private relationship between Putin and Erdogan usually sees them each praising one another, whilst they jockey for political and financial good points.

“There are presently solely two leaders left on this planet — there may be me and there may be Vladimir Putin,” Erdogan stated just lately, reflecting the respect for the Kremlin chief. Putin, in flip, has usually praises Erdogan’s political prowess.

Conflicts and offers

Russia and Turkey backed opposing sides in Syria’s civil conflict that began in 2011, placing them on a collision course. Tensions spiraled when a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian warplane close to the Turkey-Syria border in November 2015, quickly after Moscow launched its air marketing campaign to assist Assad.

The Kremlin responded with sweeping financial sanctions that halted Turkish imports, drove Turkish corporations from the profitable Russian market and reduce the move of Russian vacationers to Turkey’s resorts.

Confronted with huge financial harm, Erdogan apologized months later. Quickly after, Putin staunchly supported him when he confronted an tried army coup in July 2016, serving to to heat ties rapidly.

In 2018, Moscow and Ankara negotiated a ceasefire and de-escalation deal for the rebel-held Idlib province in northwestern Syria on the border with Turkey and sought to anchor the often-violated settlement with follow-up offers within the subsequent few years.

However whilst they cooperated on Syria, Moscow and Ankara additionally vied for affect in Libya, the place Russia supported forces loyal to army commander Khalifa Hifter whereas Turkey backed his Tripoli-based foes. Turkey additionally aggressively sought to extend its leverage within the former Soviet Central Asian nations competing with Russia and China.

In 2020, Moscow backed off when Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan routed ethnic Armenian forces within the combating over the breakaway area of Karabakh. Although Armenia hosted a Russian army base, the Kremlin has engaged in a fragile balancing act, in search of to take care of heat ties with each Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Whereas their political pursuits usually clashed, financial ties boomed, with Russia boosting pure fuel exports to Turkey by way of a Black Sea pipeline; by constructing Turkey’s first nuclear plant; and by offering the NATO member with superior air protection programs — to Washington’s dismay.

Relations amid the conflict in Ukraine

Ties with Turkey grew much more vital for Putin after he invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe’s largest battle since World Battle II.

The West responded with financial sanctions that barred Russia from most Western markets, restricted its entry to worldwide monetary system, shut transport routes and halted exports of key applied sciences. Turkey, which didn’t be part of the sanctions, has emerged as Russia’s key gateway to international markets, strengthening Erdogan’s hand in negotiations with Putin.

Whereas Turkey backed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and equipped Kyiv with weapons, Erdogan echoed Putin in accusing the U.S. and NATO of fomenting the battle. Putin has praised Erdogan for providing to mediate a settlement.

In March 2022, Turkey hosted Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul that quickly collapsed, with each Putin and Erdogan blaming the West for his or her failure.

Later that yr, Ankara pooled efforts with the United Nations to dealer a deal that opened the door for Ukrainian grain exports from its Black Sea ports, an settlement that helped drive down international meals costs earlier than falling aside the next yr.

Turkey’s balancing act in Ukraine is pushed by its dependence on the huge Russian market, provides of pure fuel and a move of vacationers.

Russia’s give attention to Ukraine has eroded its clout in areas the place Turkey and different gamers have tried to make the most of Moscow’s withering affect.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed management over all of Karabakh in an one-day blitz whereas Russian regional peacekeepers stood again. That damage Russia’s ties with Armenia, which has shifted more and more towards the West.

Moscow’s new take a look at Syria

Centered on Ukraine, Russia had few sources left for Syria at a time when Hezbollah equally pulled again its fighters amid the conflict with Israel and Iranian assist for Assad additionally weakened.

Russia tried to sponsor talks on normalizing relations between Turkey and Syria, however Assad stonewalled them, refusing any compromise.

Assad’s intransigence helped set off the Turkey-backed opposition’s offensive in November. The underfunded and demoralized Syrian military rapidly crumbled, permitting the rebels to brush throughout the nation and seize Damascus.

Even because it has provided asylum to Assad and his household, Russia has reached out to Syria’s new leaders, in search of to make sure safety for its troops nonetheless there and prolong leases on its naval and air bases.

At his annual information convention Thursday, Putin stated Russia provided Syria’s new leaders to make use of the bases for humanitarian assist deliveries and advised Moscow may supply different incentives.

Whereas Assad’s demise dealt a heavy blow to Russia, some imagine Moscow may navigate the quickly altering surroundings to retain not less than some clout.

“Syria’s opposition forces properly perceive that the nation’s future is unsure,” stated Nikolay Kozhanov, a consulting fellow with Chathan Home’s Russia and Eurasia program, in a commentary. “They need Russia, if not as a pal, then a impartial get together.”

He famous that “Moscow’s fundamental objective might be to take care of not less than a minimal stage of affect by way of a army presence, for instance, at its current bases, or by way of contacts with different regional gamers, comparable to Turkey.”

Cagaptay noticed that whereas Turkey wish to see an finish to Russia’s army presence in Syria, Ankara’s place will rely on how relations evolve with Washington.

“If we see a reset in U.S.-Turkish ties the place Turkey thinks it will possibly comfortably lean on the U.S. towards Russia, I can see Erdogan adopting a sort of extra boisterous tone vis a vis Putin,” he stated.

But when the U.S. maintains its alliance with the Kurds and stands towards Turkey’s effort to push again on Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, “Ankara might determine that it must proceed to play all sides because it has been doing for a few decade now,” Cagaptay stated.

Putin famous Russia understands Turkey’s motives in securing its borders, however he additionally warned that the Kurds may supply robust resistance if attacked.

Emre Ersen, a Russia knowledgeable at Istanbul’s Marmara College, additionally famous that whereas Assad’s fall will diminish Moscow’s affect, “the connection between Turkey and Russia won’t be devastated by the occasions in Syria.”

“Clearly, they nonetheless want to achieve out to one another relating to the disaster in Ukraine, but additionally as a result of they’ve very vital financial relations,” Ersen stated, including that Erdogan could possibly be anticipated to hunt extra concessions from Russia on power and commerce points.

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Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey contributed.