Labour’s polling collapse is historic – however Nigel Farage has overseen a much bigger one | Politics Information

Labour’s polling collapse is historic – however Nigel Farage has overseen a much bigger one | Politics Information

Labour are on monitor for his or her worst finish to the yr in opinion polls because the Second World Battle.

Sir Keir Starmer‘s get together is now averaging simply 26.6%, regardless of successful one of many largest-ever majorities 5 months in the past.

Evaluation of practically 1,000 polls throughout 75 years discovered Labour are actually 1% behind their earlier end-of-year low in 2016, when Jeremy Corbyn‘s tenure was dogged by an antisemitism row and management challenges.

The one different years to rival their present low had been 1981, when the brand new SDP-Liberal Alliance upended politics, and after a decade of energy in 2009, when the get together was reeling from the recession and bills scandal.

Labour are nonetheless main the polls, however are actually simply 0.5% forward of the Conservatives – properly down on their 19% lead in January.

Kemi Badenoch‘s get together has been virtually stagnant for a while. It now sits on 26.1%, barely 2% above when Liz Truss resigned.

Reform UK is a number of factors behind on 21%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11.8% and the Greens on 7.7%.

The evaluation for Sky Information’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips calculated averages utilizing the primary and final 10 polls of every yr (or first and final 5 earlier than 1997, when polls had been much less frequent).

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

The Labour Occasion’s present standing is a far cry from the 44% share it loved in January.

Its 17.6% fall since then is the largest calendar-year collapse in help ever recorded in UK-wide polls.

Solely twice has a much bigger drop occurred extra all of the sudden.

The primary was Nigel Farage‘s start-up Brexit Occasion in 2019, which surged to first place within the European Parliament elections after weeks of Commons impasse over negotiations.

Inside six months, its help was largely absorbed by Boris Johnson‘s Conservatives.

Greater nonetheless was the Liberal Democrat collapse of 2010 – its “Cleggmania” wave throughout the Might election marketing campaign evaporated weeks after changing into the unpopular coalition authorities’s junior companion.

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

However historical past suggests all will not be but misplaced for Labour.

After they ended the yr under 30% in 2009 and 2016, they rebounded greater than 10% the next yr.

And Margaret Thatcher recovered from an identical low of 27% in 1981 to win a 144-seat majority – although she was buoyed by the Falklands Battle.

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

The yr’s greatest winner by far is Reform UK.

Our evaluation reveals its more-than-doubling is the fourth-biggest soar seen in a calendar yr in peacetime.

However with a basic election nonetheless 4 years away, its problem is holding on to that momentum.

No third get together experiencing such a surge because the struggle has maintained its help past two years.

On the ultimate Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips of 2024, Trevor will probably be joined by Chief of the Home of Commons Lucy Powell and shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake.

Watch it reside on Sky Information from 8.30am, and comply with alongside reside on the Politics Hub.


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, 2024-12-22 08:13:00

I have been counting Labour’s lies and it is even worse than I believed | Private Finance | Finance

I have been counting Labour’s lies and it is even worse than I believed | Private Finance | Finance

If there’s an artwork to mendacity, the PM hasn’t bothered to grasp it. He lies and lies once more, and there is not any artwork in it in any respect. He simply says no matter fits him on the time.

I have been working via the PM Keir Starmer‘s damaged guarantees, u-turns and pledges, and it is exhausting. If I attempted itemizing all of them right here I would shortly run out of house.

He began by mendacity to his personal social gathering, profitable assist for the Labour management with 10 key pledges that included abolishing scholar tuition charges and the two-child profit cap, and nationalising public providers. All shortly dropped.

Having secured the assist of the Corbynite left he stepped up his efforts by mendacity to the remainder of us to win this 12 months’s normal election.

Starmer led us to consider that Labour would retain the Winter Gasoline Cost, and mentioned nothing about scrapping the £86,000 cap on social care prices for aged and disabled.

He additionally claimed he would “reshape” Labour’s relationships with companies just for chancellor Rachel Reeves to shaft them in her first Price range.

Starmer made a manifesto pledge to not improve taxes on working folks. But the Workplace for Price range Accountability (OBR) reckons 80% of Labour’s employer’s nationwide insurance coverage hike might be handed onto employees within the type of decrease wages, the remainder to shoppers through increased costs.

This week he was uncovered in an much more blatant mistruth.

Whereas looking for energy, Starmer publicly backed Nineteen Fifties Waspi girls’s struggle for “truthful and quick compensation” after the state pension age for ladies was hiked by 5 years.

Final week, he dropped them like a stone. As did each different cupboard minister who took the Waspi pledge: Rachel Reeves, Liz Kendall and Angela Rayner. Mendacity is infectious.

In 2023, Starmer lied to farmers, promising a brand new relationship and “certainty”. As an alternative, he is walloped them with inheritance tax (IHT), bringing households a lifetime of uncertainty.

In the course of the election, Starmer and Reeves pretended to don’t have any information of the £22billion “black gap” within the authorities’s funds till the OBR informed him about it.

However because the Institute for Fiscal Research (IFS) repeatedly identified, the black gap “was apparent to anybody who dared to look”.

The IFS mentioned in August that Labour “can’t actually announce a collection of tax rises within the October funds [and] blame them on this gap that she has simply found”.

Reeves nonetheless introduced the hikes. Simply not actually.

If I get caught into her evasions and fabrications, I will be right here all day. So again to Sir Keir.

He would not appear to have a single perspective that he can follow. He is flip-flopped on every little thing from EU freedom of motion, to banning outsourcing within the NHS and whether or not girls have penises (apparently 99.9% do not, however that is topic to alter like each different view he holds).

Starmer has pledged to place human rights on the coronary heart of international coverage, however is now cosying as much as Chinese language dictator Xi Jinping.

Many on the left defend Starmer by saying former Tory PM Boris Johnson was worse. That is not a terrific benchmark. Boris has been described as somebody who could not recognise the reality if confronted with it in an identification parade.

The identical applies to Sir Keir. The distinction is we knew Boris was a rogue all alongside. Starmer introduced himself as sincere and upright, which makes him an abject hypocrite as nicely. He has no disgrace and he is not going to cease.


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Harvey Jones , 2024-12-21 10:48:00

‘Uncooked fury’ amongst Waspi ladies who say combat not over after Labour’s rejection of compensation payout

‘Uncooked fury’ amongst Waspi ladies who say combat not over after Labour’s rejection of compensation payout

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Campaigners supporting thousands and thousands of girls impacted by a rise in state pension have hit again at Sir Keir Starmer’s declare that 90 per cent of them had been conscious of the modifications.

Leaders of the Ladies In opposition to State Pension Inequality (Waspi) group say the combat will proceed for the three.6 million ladies, born within the Fifties, who say they need to be given compensation payouts of as much as £10,000 every.

It comes after the Labour authorities rejected offering compensation, regardless of a Parliamentary and Well being Service Ombudsman (PHSO) advice that affected ladies ought to get sometimes £1,000 to £2,950 every.

At Prime Minister’s Questions, Sir Keir Starmer mentioned taxpayers couldn’t afford the £10.5 billion compensation package deal and wouldn’t rise to requires a vote on the choice as he got here beneath hearth within the Commons.

He additionally repeated a declare by his pensions secretary, Liz Kendall, and chancello,r Rachel Reeves, that round 90 per cent of girls did know that the modifications to pensions had been coming.

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall speaking to the media outside the Department for Work and Pensions in Westminster, London, after she announced that women affected by changes to the state pension age will not receive compensation (Lucy North/PA)

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall chatting with the media outdoors the Division for Work and Pensions in Westminster, London, after she introduced that girls affected by modifications to the state pension age is not going to obtain compensation (Lucy North/PA) (PA Wire)

Talking to The Impartial, the Waspi marketing campaign’s communication director, Debbie de Spon, mentioned the 90 per cent declare “merely isn’t true”, whereas including that there was “uncooked fury” amongst members.

Ms de Spon mentioned: “One of many causes that Liz Kendall has used… she claimed that 90 per cent of girls did know, which merely isn’t true.”

“And in the event you learn the ombudsman’s report correctly, you will note that that isn’t true. What the ombudsman took out of the analysis is that three out of 5 ladies didn’t know their state pension age was growing.”

“She’s simply utilizing one quantity out from a cluster of numbers. She’s clung on to that as a result of it’s the very best quantity. But it surely doesn’t characterize the reality.

“We shall be taking authorized recommendation about that as a result of it doesn’t make sense to us.”

Campaigners have branded a Government decision not to compensate women affected by the way changes to the state pension age was communicated ‘bizarre and totally unjustified’ (Stefan Rousseau/PA)

Campaigners have branded a Authorities determination to not compensate ladies affected by the best way modifications to the state pension age was communicated ‘weird and completely unjustified’ (Stefan Rousseau/PA) (PA Wire)

Ms de Spon added there was “uncooked fury” among the many “devastated” campaigners after the announcement which got here as a “shock and an enormous disappointment”.

She mentioned: “There’s uncooked fury [on Facebook] understandably. As a marketing campaign we’re choosing ourselves up and dealing with this head on. We’ve obtained to take a look at what Liz Kendall has mentioned and we’ve obtained to method it within the applicable method.

Questioning whether or not the federal government’s refusal of the ombudsman ruling is democratic, Ms de Spon mentioned: “If there’s no mechanism for individuals to complain and to get true justice, properly, is {that a} democracy?”

“There’s an entire constitutional difficulty right here, aside from simply the truth that 3.6 million Waspi ladies are feeling extraordinarily indignant this morning.

“It’s a far, far deeper factor. If we don’t all be careful, what’s subsequent? In the event you tolerate this then your youngsters shall be subsequent, as they are saying.”


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Alex Croft , 2024-12-18 13:40:00

Labour’s financial suicide squad is killing UK – and it’s all a part of the plan | Private Finance | Finance

Labour’s financial suicide squad is killing UK – and it’s all a part of the plan | Private Finance | Finance

When Brian sweating on the cross on the finish of the movie, he is given a glimmer of hope when a “totally educated suicide squad” marches up and apparently provides to save lots of him.

Their chief proudly boasts “we are able to commit suicide inside 20 seconds”, and that’s precisely what they do, leaving Brian doomed.

I am reminded of that scene once I see the Labour entrance bench. Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband supplied hope to a determined nation throughout the common election, solely to commit on the spot financial suicide.

Now we’re all sweating on the cross.

Labour had 14 lengthy years in opposition to coach up, and it seems like time nicely spent. It is committing financial suicide at velocity.

PM Keir Starmer drew his sword first, placing down financial sentiment by moaning about mess the Tories had left us in and warning of the brutal choices to return.

It was a large self-inflicted wound.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves then deployed her suicide squad abilities, by threatening us with tax hikes.

She left us to sweat for a crucifying 4 months, whereas we waited to find how a lot destruction her Price range would wreak.

An financial system that had been beforehand going “gangbusters” immediately misplaced its very important indicators.

After rising rising properly within the first half of the 12 months it fell by 0.1% in September and one other 0.1% in October. Now it is on recession watch.

Vitality secretary Ed Miliband is the suicide squad’s head goon.

Whereas Reeves and Starmer slash away on the financial system, his lunatic plan to make our energy grid 95% freed from fossil fuels by 2030 is a big act of financial self hurt.

Sure, the UK does have to shift in the direction of home-grown renewables. However we won’t do it at this velocity.

The sheer expense will ship power payments via the roof, whereas leaving the nation on the mercy of energy cuts and blackouts.

Miliband isn’t simply committing financial suicide. Together with Communities Secretary Angela Rayner, he is allotting a punishment beating too.

Miliband and Rayner are plastering our stunning and productive countryside with photo voltaic farms, wind generators, infinite pylons and strip housing. They’re committing merciless revenge on nation dwellers for refusing to vote Tory.

In addition to committing financial hari-kari, Labour is working a separate Give up Squad, meekly returning the UK again to self-destructive Brussels. Or what’s left of the UK.

Given Starmer’s big majority (on a tiny proportion of the vote) there’s nothing we are able to do except for singalong with Brian. Altogether now: “All the time look on the brilliant facet of life…”


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Harvey Jones , 2024-12-15 07:22:00

Labour’s promise to turbocharge financial development has already hit hassle | Cash Information

The prime minister and chancellor have been in lockstep as they reacted to Friday morning’s GDP figures.

“Disappointing”, the PM’s spokesperson stated, echoing Rachel Reeves’s phrases two hours earlier.

The UK economic system shrunk for a second month, contracting 0.1% in October.

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2:10

‘Small companies want the help now’

The federal government’s message: bear with us, it should take various months to make up for years of financial stagnation; theirs is a long-term, sustainable plan slightly than a short-term sugar rush.

They may want public persistence to carry.

Labour’s promise to turbocharge financial development has already hit hassle.

We do not know the way increased Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions will weigh on enterprise and financial exercise, or whether or not bold plans to construct homes will quantifiably influence development by the following normal election.

There may be additionally the query of what the second Trump presidency, and his discuss of tariffs, will imply for the UK economic system.

The quickest development within the G7 remains to be the official goal, however it appears more and more troublesome to realize.

What’s fascinating is that Quantity 10 seems to be speaking rather less about development and the general financial outlook, and extra about private funds.

Learn extra from Sky Information:
IT refurbisher lands £3m funding
Boots bidder seeks $10bn for takeover

Final week, Sir Keir Starmer introduced the brand new goal of delivering increased residing requirements throughout each area of the UK.

His spokesperson stated on Friday the federal government’s plan for change is about “the kind of development individuals really feel in on a regular basis lives”.

It’s a delicate however vital shift in language.

Regardless of the wording, the federal government will doubtless be judged on whether or not individuals really feel materially higher off by the point of the following election. Whether or not destructive or constructive headlines about GDP figures lower via.

Six months for the reason that election, the economic system is smaller than once they got here into workplace.

The PM and chancellor may have public persistence to carry for some time but.


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, 2024-12-13 18:40:00

‘Labour’s planning modifications are top-down diktats from shamelessly socialist authorities’ | Politics | Information

It would bulldoze via native issues and result in particular person purposes bypassing elected councillors and planning committees.

It would reengineer housing targets to modify home constructing from city areas into rural areas and it’ll fail to ship housing to the areas the place the roles are and the place individuals truly need them.

Though we constructed one million houses within the final 5 years, extra are clearly wanted. However that doesn’t imply the Authorities can journey roughshod over native peoples’ voices.

Any try to exclude native consent from the planning course of and for faceless planning officers and inspectors in Bristol and ministers in Whitehall to dictate the place they need to go as a substitute is doomed to failure.

Worse nonetheless, Labour has taken an axe to our measures to get individuals on the housing ladder. Proper to Purchase, First Time Purchaser Stamp Responsibility reduction and the reasonably priced houses to buy programmes cuts have all been minimize.

It’s no marvel that Labour Governments by no means ship on housebuilding – the final one noticed it fall to its lowest degree because the Twenties and Sadiq Khan’s report in London is abysmal.

Our plan was to extend housing in cities and areas, however Labour has bizarrely carried out the precise reverse. Housing targets in cities have been slashed, whereas they’ve ramped them up within the countryside.

It beggars’ perception that North Yorkshire is having to construct extra homes than Manchester or that targets are being minimize by as much as 50% in Newcastle, Nottingham and Coventry while doubling in Northumberland, Cumberland and Westmorland and Furness.

It’s such a poorly thought via coverage that it’s fairly clearly the most recent episode of Labour’s warfare on rural England.

Housing coverage is about extra than simply constructing homes, it’s about provide and demand. A part of the necessity for all this additional housing is Labour’s lax strategy to immigration guidelines which can considerably gasoline demand. That’s simply not acceptable.

We tightened up guidelines such because the £38,000 wage threshold as a result of we knew numbers have been simply too excessive.

However every thing Labour has carried out since they’ve in has been to extend migration, together with lowering this threshold to £29,000 and by scrapping of the Rwanda deterrent. Unpicking our efforts to curb unlawful and authorized migration will wipe out a lot of the good thing about any efforts to extend housebuilding.

Homeownership is central to what it means to be British and it provides individuals the stake in society that most individuals aspire to. Clearly, this difficult Left-wing Labour authorities simply doesn’t get it.

Kevin Hollinrake is the shadow housing secretary


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Kevin Hollinrake MP , 2024-12-12 18:57:00

Kay Burley Doubts Labour’s Declare As Celebration For Staff

Kay Burley questioned Labour’s declare to be the “occasion for the employees” this morning amid a backlash over a proposed pay rise for the general public sector.

Ministers have urged rising salaries by 2.8% subsequent yr for NHS employees, academics and senior civil servants, however unions say that isn’t sufficient.

The Royal School of Nursing referred to as the proposed hike “deeply offensive” whereas the British Medical Affiliation claimed there have been “very actual dangers” employees could go on strike because of this.

On Sky Information this morning, presenter Burley requested justice secretary Shabana Mahmood: “How a lot do you worth nurses?”

The cupboard minister mentioned she valued them and all employees within the justice system, earlier than deflecting and pointing to the standard course of which defines the pay course of for public sector employees.

Burley famous that this pay rise could be “under inflation”, which is anticipated to go up subsequent yr.

Mahmood mentioned as soon as once more that it is a course of for the unbiased pay evaluate our bodies, however Burley hit again: “I believed you had been imagined to be a celebration for the employees?”

Mahmood hesitated earlier than replying: “After all we’re a celebration for every type of employees – private and non-private employees.”

She mentioned the federal government was nonetheless grappling with the inheritance from the Tories – Labour declare the final authorities left a £22bn black gap within the public funds – and urged this was merely their beginning place within the pay negotiations.

“After all that’s an unbiased course of and that can conclude within the regular approach,” Mahmood mentioned. “I’m not going to get forward of that.”

However Burley replied: “You gave a shedload of cash to rail employees while you first got here into energy.

“Avanti West Coast workers are telling us they’re going to strike over Christmas now. What’s your message to union employees?”

“My message to all employees is that it is a nationwide effort to attempt to guarantee that public service supply on this nation truly works,” she mentioned.

Burley lower in: “Are you asking them to not go on strike?”

The minister mentioned: “Properly I wouldn’t wish to see any strikes, in fact not, I’m positive the transport secretary is working very carefully with the commerce unions that she finally has to cope with.”




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Kate Nicholson , 2024-12-11 08:34:00

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Starmer Warned Labour’s Mandate For Change Is A ‘Time Bomb’

Labour’s majority in parliament is a ticking “time bomb”, in keeping with a brutal new report – and never as a result of a menace from the fitting.

Keir Starmer’s get together could have received by a landslide in July, taking 411 seats whereas the Tories languish on simply 121, however new findings from Labour-linked suppose tank Compass claims it nonetheless presents a weak mandate for change.

In spite of everything, it was a shallow victory as Labour truly received only a third of the favored vote, and that poses a significant menace additional down the road.

On Thursday, pollsters at Discover Out Now put Nigel Farage’s populist Reform Celebration in second place behind the Tories with Labour in third – simply 5 months after voters hit the poll field.

However, Compass’s new findings, first reported within the Guardian, have discovered Labour needs to be extra involved about their lack of voter loyalty – simply two in 5 who backed Labour in July mentioned they’d think about themselves to be Labour supporters – than strain from the fitting.

That’s as a result of round 48% of Labour’s voters in July mentioned they’d be prone to vote Inexperienced or Lib Dem sooner or later, in comparison with 23% who mentioned they had been extra prone to go to Reform or the Tories.

Compass’s report Skinny Ice claimed: “They received [in Red Wall seats] as a result of they weren’t the Tories, as a result of Tory voters stayed at house and since Reform break up the regressive vote.

“The 2024 basic election was a one-off occasion wherein unprecedented Tory ineptitude met virtually unparalleled Labour self-discipline, however with none deep expression of what, if any, change Labour was providing.”

The pollsters mentioned: “The timidity of this technique, resting on ‘not being the Tories’, is a time bomb.”

Compass’s director Neal Lawson informed the Guardian Starmer ought to look to base a coalition on the progressive majority to bolster help.

In any other case, he warned, “if Labour fails to ship in authorities, its enormous however fragile majority will crumble, sending us on a bullet prepare to the populist proper.”

The report comes after a tumultuous first few months in workplace for Labour, together with backlash to cost-cutting insurance policies like altering winter gas funds for pensions.

Starmer tried to “relaunch” his authorities with six new missions final week.

He needed to show the main target onto pursuing clear vitality, constructing extra properties, recruiting extra cops, placing a higher emphasis on early years schooling, introducing increased dwelling requirements and decreasing NHS ready lists.

However, it seems to be like it is going to be a steep hill for Starmer to climb to get again on high, seeing as his internet approval scores are actually on -29, in keeping with pollsters at Ipsos.




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Kate Nicholson , 2024-12-08 16:13:00

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Angela Rayner stays defiant over Labour’s new properties goal | Information


Angela Rayner insisted “I hate failure” as she remained defiant over Labour’s new properties goal.

The deputy prime minister stated she is set to fulfill her 1.5 million new properties goal, however wouldn’t assure it, when she appeared on Sky Information with Trevor Phillips on Sunday (8 December).

The housebuilding dedication was one of many six “milestones” Sir Keir Starmer set out in a wide-ranging speech on Thursday (5 December), towards which the general public can measure the Authorities’s efficiency.

Ms Rayner stated the Authorities was “tackling the housing disaster we inherited head-on with daring motion” because it labored in the direction of constructing 1.5 million properties over 5 years.


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Lucy Leeson , 2024-12-08 11:25:00

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Rayner: Labour’s planning overhaul received’t see elimination of native democratic energy


Requested if the plans will take powers away from native councils, Ms Rayner instructed the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg: “I don’t settle for that, as a result of we’re saying they need to have a neighborhood plan, native democracy, and we’re saying the nationwide planning coverage framework, nationwide democracy, had been elected to construct the 1.5 million houses, so due to this fact we’ve bolted within the session.


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Rhiannon James , 2024-12-08 11:13:00