Morgan McSweeney, the prime minister’s chief of workers, is afraid of Nigel Farage. He’s proper to be. Farage is among the most necessary politicians of current British historical past. He should be taken significantly. However finally, I feel he’ll do extra injury to the Conservatives than to Labour – and he may grow to be the important thing to Keir Starmer profitable a second time period.

Essentially the most hanging picture of this yr in British politics was of Farage with Nick Sweet, his get together’s new treasurer, and Elon Musk, in entrance of a portrait of Donald Trump on the US president-elect’s Mar-a-Lago property 4 days in the past. It despatched a shiver down Labour (and Tory) spines, because the prospect of a wall of Musk’s cash loomed over Westminster.

McSweeney scrambled to erect some sea defences. There may be speak in No 10 of reinforcing the ban on international donations in accordance with the spirit of the unique legislation, by requiring donations from UK-registered firms to return out of earnings made within the UK.

The sums of cash being bandied about may definitely make a distinction to British politics, though we should always keep in mind the unfavorable results on Reform assist of Farage accepting massive quantities not simply from a foreigner, however one who’s unpopular right here.

However the true cause for taking Farage significantly is that his message appeals to a number of voters. McSweeney takes him significantly as a result of, though most of Reform’s assist within the normal election got here from former Conservative voters, Farage has a monitor document of interesting to Labour voters too.

If Labour is combating a defensive battle on the subsequent election to carry on to as a lot of its 2024 voters as doable, it has to fret about defections to Farage as a lot or greater than defections to the Tories, Lib Dems, Greens or Independents.

Therefore Starmer’s strident language about immigration in his speech on the finish of final month. “Almost a million folks got here to Britain within the yr ending June 2023. That’s 4 instances the migration ranges in contrast with 2019,” he mentioned, which is true.

However he went on: “A failure on this scale isn’t simply unhealthy luck. It isn’t a world development, or taking your eye off the ball. No – it is a completely different order of failure. This occurred by design, not accident. Insurance policies have been reformed, intentionally, to liberalise immigration. Brexit was used for that objective, to show Britain right into a one-nation experiment in open borders.”

That is silly speak, prone to feed conspiracy theories. The concept Boris Johnson “intentionally” used Brexit as an experiment in liberal immigration coverage is senseless, in contrast with the precise clarification, which is that Johnson was an incompetent prime minister with inconsistently liberal instincts.

But it surely confirms that Starmer and McSweeney are decided to battle Farage on his personal floor. On immigration, they are going to be significantly assisted by the numbers coming down yr by yr, as they’re projected to do, though the small boats will stay a visual and insoluble downside.

And Labour have much less to fret about in Farage than the Tories do. True, there are 89 Labour MPs who had a Reform candidate in second place of their constituency in July – however typically Reform was a distant second.

Farage poses a extra severe risk to Kemi Badenoch: by taking votes from the Tories he’s a roadblock to Tory restoration. Whereas Labour has a narrative to inform on immigration – that the brand new authorities is regaining management of our borders – the brand new Tory chief has to elucidate why she could be trusted now when she was a member of the federal government that misplaced management. I merely don’t see how she does that, besides by ready about 10 years and hoping folks will overlook.

So Farage will proceed to compete with Badenoch for a similar votes. He shall be pressured by the first-past-the-post voting system to attempt to change the Tories as the primary opposition get together. Most Tories don’t appear to be as afraid as they need to be that he would possibly succeed.

In the meantime, Labour MPs appear to be extra afraid than they should be. If Farage takes sufficient votes from the Tories to interrupt via and win extra seats than Badenoch, it may imply Labour profitable a majority on an excellent decrease share of the vote than the document low it received this yr.

One Labour adviser from the Blair years noticed to me after Tony Blair’s Christmas reception on Wednesday: “Keir Starmer is an unintended chief.” He’s a “fortunate normal” who has succeeded despite himself, benefiting from the failures of his opponents – though to be honest to him, he has ruthlessly exploited these failures.

It appears extraordinary that he ought to have received such a sweeping victory with a mere one-third share of the votes. What could possibly be extra exceptional is that, due to Farage persevering with to divide his opponents, he may win the subsequent election on an excellent smaller share.