Keir Starmer is the second prime minister to take a detailed curiosity within the proceedings of a mysterious and secretive cabal, the annual Peter Mandelson Memorial Dim Sum Supper.

This can be a group that has nothing to do with Lord Mandelson himself: it’s a group of my mates who had been eating in Chinatown on the day of his resignation from Tony Blair’s cupboard in 1998. By coincidence, we had been eating once more on the day of Mandelson’s second resignation two years later.

Each resignations occurred round Christmas, so we made an annual occasion of it, and used the gathering as an opportunity to make predictions in regards to the 12 months in politics forward. I’ve written an end-of-year column about our deliberations for a few years now, though I make no nice claims in regards to the high quality of our forecasts. Berkshire Hathaway we’re not.

Nonetheless, it seems that two prime ministers have been among the many subset of the inhabitants who observed our prognostications.

After I spoke to Keir Starmer at his election rely in July, earlier than he was declared duly elected the member of parliament for Holborn and St Pancras, he mentioned he had learn my “dim sum predictions” and requested: “Weren’t you saying it could be a hung parliament?”

I needed to admit that this was the bulk view of the dim sum diners this time final 12 months, and that these predicting a Labour majority had been within the (albeit fairly vocal) minority. I felt Starmer was entitled, at that second – poised on the brink of an enormous landslide victory, to take some satisfaction in confounding the doubters.

In spite of everything, the opposite prime minister who jogged my memory a few dim sum forecast was David Cameron, within the run-up to the 2015 election. On the finish of 2014 we had additionally predicted a hung parliament – we thought that the coalition authorities of 2010 would proceed – and I believe he was already assured that he would win sufficient Liberal Democrat seats to realize a majority. “We have to win loads of seats off them,” he informed me. He, too, produced an surprising election win.

Thankfully, this 12 months’s dim sum dinner, held at an undisclosed location final week, didn’t really feel underneath an excessive amount of strain to foretell the result of the following basic election. There will probably be loads of time to make many alternative predictions earlier than then.

For the second, although, we thought the election could be in the summertime of 2028, though there was additionally one vote for the autumn, and that Labour would win with a majority of round 50. The consensus view was that, though the federal government had obtained off to a foul begin, the Conservatives had so forfeited the belief of the voters, particularly on immigration, that it could take longer than a parliament to get well – and that Nigel Farage would proceed to divide the anti-Labour vote with out Reform truly breaking by to switch the Tories as the primary opposition.

Turning to extra rapid elections over prawn toast and pak choi, the overall view was that the 2025 native elections would give Starmer a respiratory area, as a result of these are seats that had been final contested on the peak of Boris Johnson’s vaccine-boosted reputation in 2021. Labour MPs in marginal seats would possibly postpone their inevitable panicking for an additional 12 months. We thought that the Scottish parliament in 2026 would revert to its unique design, which was supposed to supply hung parliaments through which Labour would govern in partnership with the Lib Dems.

Because the Peking duck arrived, we tried to foretell the destiny of particular person politicians over the following three-and-a-half years. Once more, a few of our predictions had been unanimous. We thought that Rachel Reeves would survive as chancellor, however that David Lammy and Ed Miliband wouldn’t final the parliament. And we agreed that Boris Johnson wouldn’t return to the Commons – my view prevailed that Tory occasion members have labored out who was answerable for internet immigration of almost 1 million in 2022.

We predicted that Starmer would lead Labour into the election, however there was one late waverer, who argued that, although it’s onerous to eject a Labour chief (and Starmer’s rule adjustments in 2021 made it more durable), the “males in blue fits” would possibly prevail upon him. In the long run, although, all of us agreed that he would survive.

After that, the consensus broke down. The bulk thought that Kemi Badenoch would lead the Tories on the election, towards the view of the minority who thought that her service within the final authorities would drag her down. The minority famous that Labour was already placing out social media adverts of her on the despatch field welcoming a leisure of visa guidelines.

We didn’t have a lot time to commit to worldwide politics. We thought Emmanuel Macron would serve out his time period till 2027: a majority thought that this could be Marine Le Pen’s final probability, and that she would lose. We didn’t suppose that Donald Trump would attempt to change the US structure to face once more, and we thought that JD Vance could be the Republican nominee in 2028.

However at this level the serviette on which I used to be making notes is smudged with inexperienced tea stains, so you’ll have to wait till subsequent 12 months’s dim sum supper for a fuller prediction.

One projection I believe is a reasonably protected one is that in 2028 or 2029, I shall be again in Camden city corridor for Starmer’s election rely, and he’ll ask, deadpan: “Weren’t you saying it could be a majority of fifty?”