Will China step up if Trump takes a step back on climate change?

The WhatsApp message was from the chief negotiator of one of the vital highly effective international locations on the COP local weather gathering. May I cease by for a chat, he requested.

As his crew hunched over computer systems consuming takeaway pizza, he raged concerning the obstructionist behaviour of lots of the different groups on the convention.

Thus far, so regular. Others had been saying variations of this all week – that this was the worst COP ever; that negotiating texts, which are supposed to get smaller as deadlines approached, have been in actual fact ballooning; that COP in its present kind is perhaps useless within the water…

Looming over all of it was the prospect of US president-elect Donald Trump withdrawing the US from the COP course of when he takes workplace for a second time. He has known as local weather motion a “rip-off” and, at his victory celebration in West Palm Seaside earlier this month, vowed to spice up US oil manufacturing past its present document ranges, saying, “We’ve got extra liquid gold than any nation on the earth”.

However there was one constructive: China.

“It is the one vibrant spot in all of that is,” the chief negotiator advised me. Not solely was its negotiating model markedly completely different to earlier years, however he additionally noticed that, as he places it, “China may very well be stepping ahead.”

One other signal that this can be the case got here at the beginning of the convention, when China made public particulars of its local weather funding. Historically, China has launched minimal details about its local weather insurance policies and plans, so it got here as a shock when, for the primary time, officers stated they’ve paid creating international locations greater than $24 billion for local weather motion since 2016.

“That’s critical cash, virtually no person else is at that degree,” one COP insider advised me.

It’s a “notable sign”, says Li Shuo, a director of China Local weather Hub, “because it’s the primary time that the Chinese language authorities has laid out a transparent determine by way of how a lot they’ve been offering.”

If these are certainly indicators that China plans to take a extra central position sooner or later, simply because the US is stepping again, it might mark a tectonic shift within the COP course of.

Traditionally, Western international locations – notably the US and EU – have offered the momentum, cheered on by smaller climate-vulnerable nations. The distinction in the best way the talks play out if China steps ahead can be marked.

Jonathan Pershing, program director of setting on the William and Flora Hewlett Basis, has been to each COP and understands higher than most the behind-the-scenes bartering, bullying and brinkmanship that makes or breaks offers at summits. He says that China received’t lead from the entrance, just like the US and Europe.

“They’re extra cautious gamers than that. It might be that they are main with Chinese language traits, which is what they may say themselves.”

(This echoes how Deng Xiaoping, president within the early Nineteen Eighties, described his financial reforms, which catapulted the nation’s financial progress into double figures: “socialism with Chinese language traits”.)

Pershing means that China is probably going to assist drive the COP course of ahead by discreetly intervening to unblock disputes. Most of this effort will happen behind closed doorways, he believes, however is prone to embody urging creating and developed international locations to extend their ambition – and the circulation of money.

Nevertheless China will not be fully useful on a number of the challenges that sluggish the method, similar to cases when international locations use COP as a stage to champion their very own pursuits.

One of many largest blockers in Baku was stated to be Saudi Arabia, which heads up a bunch of fossil gas producing international locations that need to sluggish the transition to renewables. As an enormous shopper of fossil fuels, China has usually thrown its weight behind them prior to now, similar to by resisting the UK’s effort to get settlement to section out coal at COP26 in Glasgow.

There have been another events on this yr’s talks that point out how China’s strategy is already shifting.

Prior to now, it tended to focus by itself pursuits and as such, it performed a twin position in these talks. Typically it has aligned with the US and Europe, for instance on bold targets to spice up renewable energy or on the discount of methane, a potent greenhouse gasoline. On different points, in the meantime, it has slowed progress.

One such instance was COP15, held in Copenhagen in 2009. There had been excessive hopes that an settlement could be reached to commit international locations to deep cuts in carbon emissions. However the convention practically collapsed when China fought towards US stress to undergo a regime of worldwide monitoring. The ultimate non-binding deal was usually thought of a failure.

This yr was completely different, the chief negotiator I spoke to stated. He noticed that China was being “unusually cooperative” throughout all of the discussions.

Different modifications have been noticed too, some round China’s presentation of its personal financial standing.

It’s classed as a creating nation within the context of UN local weather talks, regardless of being the world’s second largest economic system, the results of a peculiarity within the COP guidelines. (That is linked to its financial standing in 1992 when the talks course of started.) It has additionally lengthy resisted stress from developed international locations to vary its standing, which means it doesn’t must contribute to the pot that wealthy international locations have agreed to pay to poorer ones. But this yr some specialists observed a change within the wording utilized by Chinese language negotiators.

“What’s so attention-grabbing is the language the Chinese language used,” says Professor Michael Jacobs, an professional on local weather politics at Sheffield College. “They described it as ‘offered and mobilised’ – that’s the time period developed international locations use for his or her funds.”

Language issues at local weather conferences. Negotiators can spend days discussing whether or not one thing “ought to” or “will” occur. So, the Chinese language echoing the language of the wealthy world is important, Prof Jacobs argues.

“They used to calibrate every part towards what the US did,” he says. When Trump took workplace in 2016, China stood again from the talks in response. This time is completely different, based on Prof Jacobs.

“This appears to be like to me like a declare of management.”

None of that is pushed by “altruism” on China’s half,” Prof Jacobs continues.

In line with Li Shuo, the shifting economics of renewables explains why China is prone to be an even bigger participant.

“The inexperienced transformation could be very a lot being led by China – not essentially the federal government, however its personal sector and corporations”. These corporations lead the remainder of the world by what Li Shuo says is a “very vital margin”.

Eight out of each ten photo voltaic panels are made in China, and it controls some two-thirds of wind turbine manufacturing. It’s reckoned to supply a minimum of three-quarters of the world’s lithium batteries and greater than 60% of the worldwide marketplace for electrical automobiles.

Earlier this yr, Chinese language President Xi Jinping stated that photo voltaic panels, EVs and batteries are the “new trio” on the coronary heart of the Chinese language economic system.

It’s the big investments China has made in renewable applied sciences and the huge economies of scale that it has created which have additionally pushed down renewable prices yr after yr – the problem it faces now could be discovering new markets to promote it into.

The creating world is the place the demand is ready to growth. These international locations will account for two-thirds of the renewable market inside 10 years, based on a current report by a bunch of economists tasked by the UN with calculating the prices of the power transition.

Pakistan imported 13 gigawatts (GW) of photo voltaic panels within the first six months of this yr alone, based on analysis by Bloomberg NEF. To place that in context, the UK has 17GW of put in photo voltaic.

Transport clear tech to rising economies dovetails with one other of China’s insurance policies: its “Belt and Highway Initiative,” an effort to develop new commerce routes, together with roads, railways, ports and airports, to attach with the remainder of the world.

China has spent greater than a trillion {dollars} on the undertaking, based on the World Financial Discussion board. Final week, President Xi opened a brand new port on the coast of Peru.

Which begins to clarify why, as Prof Jacobs sees it, whereas the US might withdraw, China appears to be like prefer it is perhaps stepping up. “It now sees its greatest curiosity as encouraging different international locations to additionally lower their emissions through the use of Chinese language applied sciences and gear.”

In the end, although, no matter whether or not this performs, out, there’s trigger for hope, based on some well-placed observers. Camilla Born, who has been a part of the UK’s negotiating crew and helped run COP26 in Glasgow, believes that the long run talks can be decided by the brand new economics of power, not the politics of conferences.

“This isn’t nearly an concept of learn how to cope with local weather change anymore,” she argues. “That is about investments, about cash – it’s folks’s jobs, it’s new applied sciences. The conversations are completely different.”

It’s, in spite of everything, the most important revolution in power for the reason that begin of the economic revolution. And no matter which superpower takes the lead, or if the US is out of the sport for 4 years, it’s unlikely that anybody will need to miss out on such an unlimited market.

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