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Even fans of actively managed funds often concede that most other investors would be better off in index funds. but buoyed by abundant self-confidence, these folks aren't about to give up on actively managed funds themselves. a tad delusional? i think so. picking the best-performing funds is 'like trying to predict the dice before you roll them down the craps table,' says an investment adviser in boca raton, fl. 'i can't do it. the public can't do it.'
-Paul Samuelson
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Even Fans Of Actively Managed Funds Often

Paul Samuelson
Even fans of actively managed funds often concede that most other investors would be better off in index funds. but buoyed by abundant self-confidence, these folks aren't about to give up on actively managed funds themselves. a tad delusional? i think so. picking the best-performing funds is 'like trying to predict the dice before you roll them down the craps table,' says an investment adviser in boca raton, fl. 'i can't do it. the public can't do it.'
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Giving Up Self Confidence Thinking

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Still, i figure we shouldn't' discourage fans of actively managed funds. with all their buying and selling, active investors ensure the market is reasonably efficient. that makes it possible for the rest of us to do the sensible thing, which is to index. want to join me in this parasitic behavior? to build a well-diversified portfolio, you might stash 70 percent of your stock portfolio into a wilshire 5000-index fund and the remaining 30 percent in an international-index fund.
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